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    MB Insider Trends: May 4th - 50% More First Time Homebuyers

    May 5, 2020 9:40:26 AM

    Interested in seeing where the hot spots are in mortgage originations? Here are some interesting stats that we are seeing in the data right now.

    Disclaimer: These are numbers that we are seeing in the MonitorBase platform, and does not necessarily represent stats for the entire country. Although, this should give you a good idea of some interesting trends, and hopefully helps in your current origination efforts.  

    First… Mortgage Inquiry triggers are up!
    18.8% actually, so make sure you keep that in mind as you look at all of the following stats.

    Still: The more recent mortgage, the more likely they are to apply.
    We are still seeing a higher trend in mortgage inquiries (mortgage application credit pulls) for households that have a mortgage opened within the past 12 months. Last week, we told you about how about 22% of those pulling their credit for a mortgage already had an underlying mortgage that is less than 12 months old. There are even more of these young mortgages on this week’s report than on last week’s, meaning there continues to be a very high EPO risk. This poses a threat to all of the loans you closed over the last year, don’t let those clients that you worked so hard for get away. 

    In the past week 20.7% of mortgage inquiry alerts had a mortgage age between 1-12 months old. See the table below:

    Age of mortgage

    % of total inquiry alerts 

    1-12 months

    20.7%

    13-24 months

    14.96%

    25-36 months

    11.3%

    37-48 months

    7.36%

    49-60 months

    3.97%


    Don’t let the percentage drop fool you…

    Over our last report, by the numbers EPO risk is UP. There has been a 50.4% jump in mortgage inquiries for people with no mortgage (First time Homebuyers).

    You’re still in a high risk zone for Early Payoff Penalties. The current interest rate environment, which is firmly in the feds control right now if you’re watching the bond market. When it comes to EPO’s, well it’s cutting both ways..   

    Listing changes among monitored listings:

    Monthly Summary

    Active

    Under Contract

    March Ended

    -15.07%

    132.25%

    April End

    22.33%

    -35.39%


    This is a very good change from what we saw in March with listings down, and most the inventory under contract. We’re back now over Februarys Listing inventory with a smaller percentage under contract then this time last month.

    Still a trend, the higher score... higher app rates?
    This new trend is holding strong, and we aren’t seeing a spread back out from a 620 score up to 850. Recently inquiry alert rates are happening predominantly in the higher score ranges. 

    This is quite important if you are retaining servicing: It’s the high score clients who are running off, increasing forbearance risk for remaining servicing: Recapture right now is incredibly important for portfolio values.

    71.6% of inquiry alerts for the past week have a 700+ score. See below..

    Score Range

    % of total inquiry alerts

    700+

    71.6%

    640-699

    16.29%

    620-639

    3.27%

    580-619

    4.53%

    350-579

    4.58%

     

    To see more mortgage trend updates like this, subscribe to the MonitorBase Blog at the top of the page or join our MonitorBase Insider Facebook Group.


    William LeBaron

    Written by William LeBaron

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